A survey found the number of people living without homes in Central Oregon is higher than ever.

But it’s not clear to what extent homelessness is actually growing.

The region’s leading homelessness agency released data Monday from January’s Point-in-Time Count, a yearly survey conducted in communities across the nation to gather information about the homelessness crisis. The results indicate there are 2,108 homeless people across Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook Counties. That’s about 300 more people than in 2024, an increase of 17%.

This year’s data adds to a trend of steady increases in each of the past 12 years, and particularly in the past five, in which the homeless count has grown by about 89%.

That’s despite millions of dollars of investment in recent years for boosting availability of shelter and building new low-income housing to help people transition out of homelessness.

However, homelessness leaders are confident the crisis would be much worse without those investments, and say more are needed to thwart future increases.

Getting better at doing the count

The Point-in-Time Count, which is tied to federal and state funding allocations for local agencies, provides the most comprehensive census available to quantify and characterize homelessness. Because of better coordination, the count has grown progressively more accurate in its ability to capture a higher proportion of the actual number of homeless people in the area, said Molly Heiss, deputy executive director of community services with NeighborImpact, a nonprofit that manages Central Oregon’s homeless information system.

The 2024 count, despite an overall increase, showed lower homelessness numbers inside Central Oregon’s cities. That trend did not continue this year. In Bend, the homeless tally has fluctuated from 1,012 to 974 to 1,001 in the past three years. The number jumped from 150 to 374 in Redmond, 241 to 367 in Prineville, 62 to 124 in Sisters and 34 to 77 in Madras. It dropped from 199 to 105 in La Pine and from 123 to 48 in Warm Springs.

Those changes could be partly because of natural fluctuations in the data, overcounts or undercounts in previous years.

At least some of the overall increase is because outreach workers are making contact with more people than ever before and administering the survey to them, Heiss said. The city of Bend and Deschutes County awarded $1.1 million in outreach grants to a group of service providers earlier this year to work with people living at Juniper Ridge, a large homeless encampment north of Bend where the agencies are working to consolidate and eventually close to camping. According to the city, 11 people have moved out of the camp into more stable housing since January.

During a presentation on Monday, Heiss estimated there are about 100 people who have moved out of homelessness into new low-income or supportive housing projects since the Point-In-Time Count — including as a result of a recent closure of homeless camps along China Hat Road in the Deschutes National Forest.

A pair of executive orders from Gov. Tina Kotek in 2023 and 2024 sent $25 million to Central Oregon for outreach and access to services, low-income housing construction, rental assistance and administrative support for housing programs. The funding helped 235 households get housing and created 183 shelter beds in the region, with 45 more to come. It also helped 5,650 people avoid slipping into homelessness, according to Tammy Baney, executive director of the Central Oregon Intergovernmental Council, which oversaw the funds locally.

Still, Baney said she wasn’t surprised to see a higher count this year because the number has been historically underestimated, and methods are now more robust. She said the focus should be on addressing the root causes of homelessness, one of which is high housing costs and lack of support services.

The region is just getting to the point of having the minimum amount of shelter, transitional, supportive and low-income housing to actually make a difference, Baney said.

“We are making strides toward being able to get people housed, but it is not going to change overnight. It is going to take time,” she said.

Deschutes County Commissioner Phil Chang said he was disappointed to see homelessness numbers continue to rise. He had hoped to see a leveling off or a decline this year.

“In the last few years, we’ve built a really good vehicle to move people out of homelessness, but we don’t have the amount of low-income housing that we need to deliver everybody and to free up spaces so that we can move more people out of unsheltered homelessness.”

Central Oregonians priced out

More than half of the people who responded to the survey this year said they had been experiencing homelessness for at least three years. More than half of respondents said they had lived in Central Oregon for at least 10 years.

The top cause of homelessness, according to the survey, was economic factors. Other top drivers were evictions and personal reasons.

“There are a lot of working poor that might have been priced out of the housing market and are surviving in an unhoused situation or a sheltered situation because they can’t afford to be housed in our area,” Heiss said.

In Bend, nearly two-thirds of renters are “cost-burdened,” meaning they spend at least 30% of their income on rent. About one quarter of renters spend at least half of their income on rent.

Nearly one-quarter of the unhoused community is experiencing “chronic” homelessness, according to the survey, and the number has jumped from 165 to 463 since 2021. Of that group, the proportion of people who were sleeping in shelter as opposed to on the street or in their cars grew.

That’s an encouraging statistic because people who have been experiencing homelessness for a long time are sometimes the most reluctant — or face the biggest obstacles — to enter a shelter, said Eliza Wilson, a nonprofit service provider and board chair of the Homeless Leadership Coalition, the agency that runs the count.

“That shows incredible dedication by our shelter providers, the increase in funding across the region, so I think that that is a good sign,” Wilson said during a presentation of survey results Monday. “Folks are seeking shelter when it is available to them.”

Young and old

This year’s count captured upward trends in two age groups to which homelessness leaders are beginning to turn their attention: young people and old people.

The count includes nearly 300 children who are under 18 and nearly 350 people over the age of 55. In each category, most people are living without shelter.

“We have a big population of people who are growing up homeless, and then we have a population who are aging into chronic homelessness,” Wilson said.

At Central Oregon Villages, a pod of tiny shelter units in Bend that help people transition into permanent housing, 15 of 35 people are older than 55, said Donna Burklo, the nonprofit’s interim director. The shelter has seen an influx of seniors in the last few months, and Burklo expects that to continue as the population ages.

“The aging population is a real challenge,” Burklo said. “It’s only going to get a whole lot worse.”

Young people also face a unique set of circumstances for navigating their way out of homelessness. Central Oregon has some of the highest rates in the nation of youth who do not have shelter.

But the issue came into the spotlight in 2024 as youth advocates and others vouched for new services and shelters specifically tailored to young people. The efforts have gained the attention of city councilors, county commissioners and state lawmakers.