Oklahoma takes top spot in BCS standings
Published 5:00 am Monday, October 18, 2010
The first BCS standings are out and Boise State is already chasing a couple of teams from the power conferences.
Oklahoma was first and Oregon was second Sunday, with Boise State in third place and in need of plenty of help to become the first team from a conference without an automatic Bowl Championship Series bid to play for the BCS title.
Jerry Palm, who analyzes the BCS standings at collegebcs.com, said despite a better early season showing in the polls, Boise State is a long shot for the championship.
“They just need too much to happen to get excited about their chances,” Palm said.
With 10 undefeated teams in major college football, there’s serious potential for BCS controversy this season, even beyond whether Boise State from the Western Athletic Conference or maybe a Mountain West Conference team such as TCU or Utah gets a chance to play in the biggest BCS game.
The Sooners from the Big 12 and Ducks from the Pac-10 begin this race from the front row, but they can’t quite say they’re in control of it. Only once in 12 seasons of the BCS have the teams that were at the top of the first standings played in the championship game. That was 2005 with Southern California and Texas.
“We’re going up to play a 6-0 team at Missouri, and they’re not handing anything out right now,” Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said. “It means absolutely nothing.”
With the possibility of undefeated champions coming out of the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten, Stoops is probably right.
Auburn is fourth in the BCS standings, followed by TCU and LSU. Michigan State from the Big Ten is seventh. None of those teams have lost yet. Alabama is eighth and unbeaten Utah is ninth.
LSU and Auburn play Saturday.
“I would be shocked if the winner didn’t jump Boise next week in the polls,” Palm said. And if the winner jumps the Broncos in the polls, it’s a lock to jump them in the BCS standings.
In fact, if one of the SEC’s Tigers goes 13-0, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see that team in the BCS title game no matter what Oklahoma and Oregon do.
The Sooners took first place by grading out No. 1 in the computer ratings. Oklahoma, coming off a 52-0 victory against Iowa State, is No. 3 in the USA Today coaches’ poll and No. 4 in the Harris poll.
Oregon is No. 1 in all the polls, including the AP Top 25 which is not used in the BCS calculations, but rated eighth in the computer rankings.
Boise State is No. 2 in all the polls and seventh according to the computers, but the math leaves the Broncos third in the BCS standings.
“The computers do not like this team,” Palm said.
The poll voters like Boise State better than they ever have, but still not enough.
The problem, as always for Boise State, is the strength of schedule. Early nonconference victories against Virginia Tech and Oregon State help the Broncos. The WAC schedule mostly drags them down.
On Saturday, Boise State beat San Jose State 48-0 and Palm said the victory actually pulled the Broncos’ computer rating down.
Because Boise State will almost always rate behind the other undefeated teams in the computers, the Broncos would need to be an overwhelming No. 1 in both polls to have a shot at the national title game when the final BCS standings come out Dec. 5, Palm said.
Even if Boise State finishes the season as the only undefeated team, Palm is skeptical of its chances to reach the title game.
“I look at it as Boise has to be almost the only choice,” Palm said. “It would take a unique year for Boise to be a unanimous No 1 in the polls.”
Oklahoma, which has quality victories against Florida State, Air Force and Texas, has a chance to bolster its resume Saturday against Missouri, 11th in the standings. Down the road the Sooners play at Oklahoma State, 14th in the standings.
Oregon faces UCLA on Thursday night at home, then visits USC, which is not included in the BCS standings because the Trojans are on probation. The Ducks finish the season against Arizona (18th) and Oregon State.
BCS Standings List
Oct. 17, 2010
Harris USA Today Computer BCS
Rk Pts Pct Rk Pts Pct Rk Pct Avg Pv
1. Oklahoma 4 2486 0.8800 3 1334 0.9044 1 .060 0.9215 —
2. Oregon 1 2774 0.9819 1 1452 0.9844 8 .330 0.8921 —
3. Boise St. 2 2685 0.9504 2 1385 0.9390 7 .260 0.8898 —
4. Auburn 5 2410 0.8531 5 1238 0.8393 3 .140 0.8641 —
5. TCU 3 2516 0.8906 4 1300 0.8814 5 .240 0.8573 —
6. LSU 6 2164 0.7660 6 1132 0.7675 2 .100 0.8245 —
7. Michigan St. 8 1964 0.6952 8 1037 0.7031 4 .150 0.7628 —
8. Alabama 7 2092 0.7405 7 1085 0.7356 12 .520 0.6654 —
9. Utah 9 1925 0.6814 9 1004 0.6807 11 .440 0.6540 —
10. Ohio St. 10 1761 0.6234 10 936 0.6346 14 .580 0.5726 —
11. Missouri 16 1196 0.4234 16 640 0.4339 6 .180 0.5491 —
12. Stanford 13 1455 0.5150 14 689 0.4671 10 .410 0.5374 —
13. Wisconsin 11 1646 0.5827 11 867 0.5878 16 .610 0.5335 —
14. Oklahoma St. 15 1247 0.4414 15 659 0.4468 9 .350 0.5261 —
15. Iowa 12 1511 0.5349 12 785 0.5322 17 .660 0.4824 —
16. Nebraska 14 1322 0.4680 13 768 0.5207 20 .740 0.4295 —
17. Florida St. 17 1124 0.3979 17 608 0.4122 13 .570 0.4267 —
18. Arizona 18 1037 0.3671 18 494 0.3349 15 .600 0.3807 —
19. Texas 22 397 0.1405 22 256 0.1736 18 .690 0.2214 —
20. West Virginia 19 663 0.2347 19 323 0.2190 23 .650 0.1812 —
21. South Carolina 21 576 0.2039 20 284 0.1925 24 .690 0.1555 —
22. Kansas St. 22 143 0.0506 27 53 0.0359 19 .620 0.1422 —
23. Arkansas 20 213 0.2050 21 274 0.1858 28 .000 0.1302 —
24. Mississippi St. 20 129 0.0457 24 133 0.0902 21 .800 0.1253 —
25. Virginia Tech 23 242 0.0857 23 165 0.1119 28 .000 0.0658 —
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Explanation Key
The BCS Average is calculated by averaging the percent totals of the Harris Interactive, USA Today Coaches and Computer polls. Team percentages are derived by dividing a team’s actual voting points by a maximum 2,825 possible points in the Harris Interactive Poll and 1,475 possible points in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
Six computer rankings are used to determine the overall computer component. The highest and lowest ranking for each team is dropped, and the remaining four are added and divided to produce a Computer Rankings Percentage. The six computer ranking providers are Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolfe. Each computer ranking accounts for schedule strength in its formula.