Obama’s coattails

Published 5:03 am Wednesday, November 5, 2008

When U.S. Sen. Barack Obama endorsed Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley for the U.S. Senate seat late last month, the Merkley campaign hoped it would allow him to ride Obamas coattails to victory.

Tuesday nights election results suggest that statewide, Democratic candidates rode Obamas coattails, although Central Oregons results were varied. Crook and Jefferson counties stuck to their Republican roots, voting almost exclusively along Republican party lines for Sen. John McCain, U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden for the 2nd Congressional District and Allen Alley for state treasurer.

In Deschutes County, voters picked Obama, Democrats Judy Stiegler to the House and Ben Westlund for state treasurer; but they chose Republicans Smith and Walden.

Political scientist Jim Moore says the results follow the regions history, and the changing face of Deschutes County.

I think Bend is more bipartisan than it was in 2000, Moore said. A lot of people are moving there for the lifestyle, and they will tend to be more Democratic, so Bend (and the county) are becoming less sure as a Republican area than they once were.

Moore said that if any coattail effect played out in Central Oregon, it was more tied to the economy than to Obama.

The coattail effect generally doesnt go very deep down the ballot, said Moore, who teaches at Pacific University in Forest Grove. So if people are really enthused about Obama, it might affect the federal offices, but not generally further than that.

As for Republicans receiving less support in Deschutes County, Moore said some cross-party interest lured voters. Additionally, he said Oregonians have a history of not voting straight party lines.

We have a history of splitting the ticket because we like the qualities of people rather than the party ID, he said. But the bulk of people do cast straight-party tickets.

This election has received historic voter turnout throughout Oregon, notably among the quarter-million new Democratic registrations, Moore said.

Smith hoped that many of those new Democrats would vote for Obama and not anything else on the ticket, which is known as undervoting or voter roll-off, Moore said.

Undervoting often happens because voters are disgusted with an election, dont care about whos running in their district or are new voters and dont have a habit of voting, Moore said.

Were looking at people who cast a vote for president, but do not cast votes for the Senate race, Moore explained. The older, more habitual voters will still cast votes. Smith (hoped) that will be enough to save his Senate seat.

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