1,100 new homes ignite ’06 market
Published 4:00 am Wednesday, December 21, 2005
As Bend approaches the finish line in a record year for new-home sales, local builders already are reloading for 2006.
Several different developers who have met recently with city planners said they plan to submit formal applications soon after Jan. 1 for more than 1,100 new homes in Bend – all on the east side, where builders have scooped up a few pockets of undeveloped land.
That total doesn’t include many other smaller projects that are popping up on parcels ranging from less than an acre to 15 acres or more as builders try to take advantage of Bend’s red-hot housing market.
Bend already has broken records that it set last year for new-home starts and new-home sales.
As of Tuesday, Central Oregon real estate agents reported sales of 1,276 new homes in Bend this year.
By contrast, the number of new homes sold in Bend for the corresponding period in 2004 stood at 938.
The difference represents a 36 percent increase.
”We’ve had 22 months of record sales. … The demand has just been off the top of the charts,” said Kay Lucas, principal broker at Brooks Resources Realty in Bend.
Her company recently released about 26 lots at its River Wild subdivision in Mount Bachelor Village and saw 18 sell the first day. Three more sold out in following days and she expects the remainder to be sold shortly.
She and others in the local industry say they don’t see a slowdown anytime soon for Bend’s home-building market.
”There is very little (land) available,” Lucas said. ”For the buyers that are out there, it’s a struggle to find something.”
Bend planners are currently working with the city council to bring more land into the city for development. But it’s unclear when that will happen because of Oregon’s complex and rigorous process for adding land to growing cities.
A Bend housing-supply study last summer estimated the city needs more than 23,000 new housing units in the next 25 years to meet expected population growth. That’s roughly double the number of homes Bend had in 2004.
In the meantime, developers who can lock up undeveloped land are looking to capitalize on Bend’s appetite for new homes.
Darrin Kelleher said his company, Lava Crest Development, expects to bring about 600 lots to market in 2006. That includes two new large-scale residential projects, Hidden Hills and Eastside Meadows, on Bend’s east side.
Those two projects represent close to 300 new homes. Lava Crest, which will sell the lots to builders who construct the homes, likely will release the lots in a single sale – as opposed to the phased sales often associated with larger developments, Kelleher said. The idea is to cash in on the market while buyer interest is high and supply remains relatively constrained.
”We intend to be building those all in one phase – do it in one stroke,” Kelleher said. ”We’re not easing our way into those.”
Other builders also sense opportunity, but they are taking a more cautious approach.
Pahlisch Homes plans to submit proposals for more than 570 homes on Bend’s east side in a pair of developments.
McCall Landing would add about 200 homes on a 32-acre piece north of Empire Road near 18th Street. A second project, dubbed Shadow Glen, which Pahlisch recently showed to city planners, calls for 373 homes on a 75-acre parcel south of Reed Market Road on the east side of 15th Street.
The developments would be phased in over several years, said Terri Valiant, land development manager with Pahlisch. Shadow Glen, for example, likely would be divided into four phases with development proceeding at the rate of one phase per year, depending on the market, Valliant said.
The company has another project already in the construction stage that will add 187 more homes on the south end of the city near China Hat Road.
Valiant isn’t sure what price range people could expect in the new neighborhoods, but said smaller homes could sell in the mid-$200,000s and larger ones in the upper-$400,000s to $500,000.
Pahlisch has a waiting list for homes and anything that hits the market sells quickly, Valiant said.
”We’ve been really fortunate – people are still wanting to buy the homes and all the different types of homes are selling,” she said.
If the market begins to cool, Valiant said Pahlisch probably would go with a less aggressive construction schedule. It could divide a project like Shadow Glen into six phases instead of four, for example.
But if prices are any indication, demand remains strong.
The median sale price for new homes rose more than $40,000 this year in Bend, from $237,225 last year to $277,893, according to the Central Oregon Association of Realtors. That jump represents an increase of roughly 17 percent.
Local developers’ building plans come amid speculation that demand for housing may be cooling. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist David Lereah told The Associated Press late last month that the peak of the housing boom appeared to have passed.
He predicted that the housing market would continue to cool over the next several months to more sustainable levels as interest rates continue to rise.
While sales of existing homes have started to fall off sharply in some areas of the country, the picture for new-home sales nationally has been less clear. National sales numbers for new homes in October showed the biggest month-to-month increase since 1993, according to CNN Money. And the number of new-home starts rose more than 5 percent last month from October – a more than 17 percent increase from same time last year.
* Bend median home sale price through Dec. 20, 2005: $277,893
* Bend median home sale price through Dec. 20, 2004: $237,225
* New-home sales in Bend through Dec. 20, 2005: 1,276
* New-home sales in Bend through Dec. 20, 2004: 938
* Permits for single-family homes in Bend through October 2005: 3,369
* Permits for single-family homes in Bend through October 2004: 2,646