If you build houses, they will come. At least that seems to be the prevailing wisdom among builders in Bend.

That optimism though is apparently starting to weaken.

”So many new subdivisions have come on line that have added new houses to the market, it will be interesting to see if the new inventory can be absorbed as quickly as it has been in the past four years,” said Norma DuBois, associate broker at Coldwell Banker Morris Real Estate.

The average number of days a house is on the market in Bend has dropped in the past few years. In 2002, houses were listed for an average of 140 days compared with 146 days the previous year. Six years ago, it took 203 days on average for a house to sell in Bend.

This year, though, will be a formidable challenge to real estate agents as the supply of new houses is quickly growing in a weak economic environment.

”I don’t know if we can continue selling houses at the current pace,” DuBois said. ”I don’t think we will see a decrease in the number of average days a house is on the market in Bend and we may even see a slight increase because of the great many homes coming on the market.”

In Bend alone, at least 314 new houses are slated to go on the residential real estate market in 2003, along with 270 apartment units. That’s on top of the 733 houses already listed for sale as of Thursday, according to Multiple Listing Service of Central Oregon.

Some of the houses will be bought by Bend residents shifting from one place to the next. But many of these will have to go to those new to Bend.

To one couple from the Midwest, for example, Bend has just the right amount of city life and rural charm.

Both Sara and Ken McCormic spent most of their lives in Ulysses, Kansas, a rural town with a population of about 5,900. They liked the small town atmosphere but the McCormics, who are in their 60s, had to drive five to six hours to receive major medical care, 50 miles to shop at the nearest Wal-Mart and travel to other cities to attend live music concerts and local theater productions.

But after one trip to Central Oregon and almost six months of research on the Internet, the McCormics decided to move to Bend permanently.

The couple found a local Realtor and in just one weekend, they had found a house and made an offer.

The McCormics, both retirees, are just one piece of the answer to the question, ”Who’s buying all these houses in Bend?”

Data taken from Oregon Department of Transportation’s surrendered drivers licenses show that the largest groups of newcomers last year were from California, Washington, Arizona, Idaho and Colorado, as well as Texas and Florida.

This migration has boosted Bend’s population by 11 percent to 57,750 over the past two years, according to estimates from the Population Research Center at Portland State University. A Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast puts Bend’s population at 67,180 by 2005, a jump of 16 percent.

That population growth and the expectation of equally strong growth over the next five years has fueled the local real estate market. More houses have sold each year from the previous year and taken less time to sell over the past three years.

Even so, the strong pace of home sales is hitting a plateau, according to data from the MLS. There was an 18 percent increase in the number of houses sold in 2001 from 2000, when 1,207 Bend houses sold. But last year saw just a 3 percent increase, or 1,456 houses, according to MLS.

The pace of building, however, isn’t slowing.

For example, about 66 houses are planned in phase II and III for Northwest Crossing, which began in mid-January. Phase IV is expected to break ground this summer and 39 houses will go on the market in November 2003, according to David Ford, general manager of West Bend Property Co.

The first phase, which included 60 houses, began in March and most of the houses have sold in 2002. The residential mixed-use community will eventually encompass 1,000 single-family houses and 350 multifamily units over roughly 20 phases in 12 to 15 years.

”In the early 1960s, I don’t think there were 200 houses that changed hands a year,” said Gary Capps, co-owner of Century 21 Gold Country Realty in Bend. ”As long as the interest rates remain at the low level that they are currently, I think houses will keep selling at the same rate as 2002.”

Other new projects expected to hit the market this year include 90 houses and 28 duplex units from Pahlisch Homes. The company has five subdivisions in northeast, southwest and southeast Bend in various stages.

Westbrook Homes plans to build a 21 houses on the west side of 27th Street, south of Bear Creek Road. Dick Lowell, president of the company, said he expects to break ground in April.

Steve Robertson, president of Pennbrook Homes said: ”Just in the last couple of years there’s been an explosion of permits, and we know that there’s more to come. This tremendous amount of inventory is not going to change in the three to four years.”

Pennbrook Homes is developing several subdivisions in northeast Bend and 74 houses will go on the market before the year is over. The company is also building 24 townhouses on Mt. Washington Drive that will be for sale in March.

Robinson-Audia Development LLC will break ground on 242 apartment units on Bend’s east side. The first project consisting of 17 apartment buildings located at the base of Pilot Butte. The first phase, which includes 96 units, is expected to be completed in October, according to project manager Howard Miller.

”Many people want to park their money in real estate instead of the stock market right