Perfect teams could miss out on BCS
Published 5:00 am Monday, October 29, 2012
At the end of another crazy college football weekend, after Florida and Oregon State and Southern California lost, the top end of the bowl picture became more clear but also more muddled.
By Sunday, the top of the Bowl Championship Series rankings consisted of four undefeated teams, each with a legitimate, late-season claim to a spot in the national championship game. No. 1 Alabama and Oregon appeared unbeatable. Kansas State and Notre Dame seemed no less formidable.
So the questions lingered: What if all four of those teams finish the 2012 season undefeated?
Which two would face off in Miami in early January for the title?
Jerry Palm is an expert on such matters for CBSsports.com. And although Oregon occupied the fourth position in the BCS rankings this week — Kansas State came in second, Notre Dame third — if the all-undefeated situation played out, he predicted an Oregon-Alabama final.
“I want to see what the voters have to say,” he said. “They’re the ones who really decide. If they can’t, that’s where the computers come in. So far, they’re strong on the Oregon bandwagon. It will be hard for Notre Dame to overcome that.
“I still think Oregon is the favorite.”
Should that chain of events play out, it would surely incite fans of the Fighting Irish, who could cite a defense that has allowed seven touchdowns in eight games and a schedule loaded with teams that are likely to play in bowl games. The games against Big Ten opposition on that schedule, Palm said, have been diminished in a down year for the conference. But that is not Notre Dame’s fault.
And Notre Dame is still Notre Dame.
“If Oregon has to watch its back for anybody, it’s Notre Dame,” Palm said. “They have a case for it. Their name may mean something.”
At this point in the season, though, Palm said he could not recall a major undefeated team leapfrogging another major undefeated team. Not in the BCS era, anyway.
He pointed to Auburn in 2004. That season, Southern California and Oklahoma finished 1-2 in the polls, same as they finished the regular season. The Trojans ultimately beat the Sooners to win a championship, much to the chagrin of Auburn, which also finished the year undefeated. That was the only time Palm could recall a season that ended with two major undefeated teams since the birth of the BCS.
“That sort of jumping doesn’t occur,” Palm said. “No matter how bad Auburn fans wanted it. Anyway, if this wasn’t Notre Dame, we wouldn’t even be discussing it. If this was Ohio State, or USC, we wouldn’t be talking about it.”
This year, each of the contenders for the title game could argue a legitimate claim.
Oregon’s offense has scored at a video-game rate: eight games, 59 touchdowns, at least 42 points each time. The Ducks hung 70 points on Colorado on Saturday.
For Oregon, though, the toughest part of its Pacific-12 schedule remains. This weekend, the Ducks play at USC, and tough conference games against Stanford and at Oregon State wait down the road.
The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, held Oklahoma to 13 points, and this after the Sooners scored 41, 63 and 52 points in their three previous games. Notre Dame closes out its season against USC, on the road, but the games on the rest of the schedule — Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest — look eminently winnable.
Then there is Kansas State, the stepchild in this equation, at least in terms of pedigree. That despite the fact that the Wildcats’ quarterback, Collin Klein, is the Heisman Trophy front-runner, and their coach, Bill Snyder, is a strong contender for national coach of the year.
The Wildcats have proven they can score and defend. They rarely turn the ball over. They already toppled Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. And the rest of their schedule — Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Baylor and Texas — is tough but not intimidating.
And so another college football season continues to turn in unexpected directions. Remember when LSU and USC were the trendy national championship picks in August? Remember when Alabama seemed vulnerable? Well, that was a couple of months ago.
“I feel like I’ve made more BCS bowl predictions changes this year than I ever have,” Palm said. “It feels like I’m making two to three changes a week. I’m not even changing the Big Ten team anymore, because I was doing it every week.”
Just another crazy season?
“Why should this year be any different?” Palm said.