Oscar predictions 2023: Who will, and who should win at the 95th annual Academy Awards

Published 3:50 pm Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Another year, another award show, and what a weird and wonderful array of films are up for the gold this time around. Jimmy Kimmel hosts the upcoming 95th annual Academy Awards ceremony which will air on ABC at 5 p.m. Sunday (you can also stream it with Hulu + LiveTV).

This year’s ceremony will have all the usual pomp and circumstance, but it also potentially offers some surprises, case in point: No actor in any of the four acting categories has had a clean sweep of major awards leading up to this year’s Oscars, meaning the top awards aren’t as much of a sure thing as they have been. Plus, there are usually at least a couple of “upsets” in each ceremony, not including slapping presenters.

While I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you the exact outcome of Sunday’s show, I have a good idea of what’ll go down. So here are my predictions ahead of the ceremony this year as well as who I think should win. (Note: Not every category is represented due to space).

Best Picture

What will win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

What should win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

This has remained my favorite film of 2022. While the Academy tends to lean away from genre films, this brilliant movie from Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (together referred to as the Daniels) manages to be so much more than just another trippy, indie sci-fi flick. Plus, the overall film has been racking up awards this season, and rightfully so. However, other films have been locks going into Oscar weekend only to be shut out on the night. I sincerely hope that doesn’t happen here.

Best Director

Who will win: The Daniels for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Who should win: The Daniels or Stephen Spielberg for “The Fabelmans”

Again, “Everything” was my favorite film of last year, but I would be remiss not to mention how much Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical film really struck me with its deeply personal story for the director and its melancholic and bittersweet overtones, not only in regard to filmmaking but also the family dynamic.

Best Actress

Who will win: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” or Cate Blanchett, “Tár”

Who should win: Michelle Yeoh

Right now, it feels like it’s an even chance of either Yeoh or Blanchett winning. However, I hope that Yeoh edges ahead in votes. Both actors delivered career bests this year, and while Blanchett’s performance is far more subtle, Yeoh is incandescent and brings such a varied character to life in a perfect way. It would also make Yeoh the first Asian actress to win the top prize, and even her nomination is only the second time an Asian actress has been nominated. (The first time was Merle Oberon for 1935’s “The Dark Angel,” though she kept her mother’s Sri Lankan heritage a secret.)

Best Actor

Who will win: Austin Butler, “Elvis,” or Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”

Who should win: Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin”

The Academy loves to hand out awards to actors in biopics, so Butler has a slight advantage, and Fraser gives his best performance to date. Both deliver great and transformative work, but for me, Farrell deserves a win here. What he does in the bleak Irish serio-comedy expertly walks that fine line between humor and tragedy, and he gives an achingly brilliant performance. Plus, it’s his second performance in 2022 to blow me away (the first was “The Batman”) — the man is on a roll.

Best Supporting Actress

Who will win: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther,” or Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

Who should win: Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

I’d honestly be thrilled with any of these ladies winning. Each brings stellar work to her respective role, but Bassett would be the first Marvel actor to win, and neither Curtis nor Hsu has ever won, or been nominated, before. But Hsu, like everyone in that film, brought such varied character work and the entire film hinges on Hsu’s work. If she wasn’t completely committed or didn’t strike a chord with audiences, then “Everything” would have fallen apart.

Best Supporting Actor

Who will win: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Who should win: Ke Huy Quan

While I’m still bummed that co-star James Hong was left out of all the award conversations this year, Quan’s shockingly strong performance makes up for it. The man put so much into this role and always manages to make me giggle and then cry, especially with his “Be kind” speech and “I would have really liked just doing laundry and taxes with you” moments. Plus, I can’t wait for his acceptance speech.

Best Adapted Screenplay

What will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

What should win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

Nothing is lost in translation with Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell’s impeccable adaptation of the 1929 novel of the same name. Their work brings the classic novel told from the German perspective during World War I to a stark and still-poignant note about the toll war takes on the soldiers fighting, juxtaposed with the ones sending them into battle. Truly beautiful writing.

Best Original Screenplay

What will win: The Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

What should win: The Daniels

The fact that a screenplay featuring both a heartwarming family story and pivotal moments involving sex toys and hot dog fingers was nominated for an Oscar is incredible. The fact it’s going to win is bonkers and beautiful.

Best Animated Feature

What will win: “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Who should win: “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”

Del Toro’s stop animation musical adaptation of the classic story with anti-Facisist themes is incredible from top to tail.

Best Documentary Feature

What will win: “Navalny”

What should win: “Fire of Love”

The thriller-doc on a Russian opposition leader who survived poisoning from Putin is timely and likely has broad appeal across Oscar voters. But Nat-Geo’s film on volcanologists Katia and Maurice Kraft, scientists who ended up giving their lives in the pursuit of their research, is both lovely and heartbreaking.

Best International Feature

What will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

What should win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”

What I stated earlier in regard to the script applies here, too; the film is just stunning.

Best Animated Short

Who will win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

Who should win: “My Year of Dicks”

“Dicks” (along with fellow nominee “Ice Merchants”) was one of my favorite shorts coming out of last year’s BendFilm Fest, so it would be nice to see it take home gold.

Best Original Score

Who will win: Volker Bertelmann, “All Quiet on the Western Front”

Who should win: Justin Hurwitz, “Babylon”

I won’t deny the perfection that Bertelman brought to the score of the German film, but I also can’t stop listening to the soundtrack to “Babylon.”

Does that mean it’s necessarily better? Absolutely not, but Hurwitz fits his wild score into the completely batty and brash world seamlessly.

Plus, I’d just really like “Babylon” to have some kind of recognition as I’m apparently one of the few who really dug it.

Best Original Song

What will win: “Hold My Hand,” from “Top Gun: Maverick,” Lady Gaga and BloodPop

What should win: “Naatu, Naatu,” from “RRR,” Chandrabose and M.M. Keeravaani

We all knew that Lady Gaga would sooner rather than later get a second Oscar for best song.

This one feels like a classic ’80s love ballad, so it fits the movie really well. But isn’t it amazing that a song from a Bollywood movie is up for an Academy Award and has a strong chance at winning?

Plus, they’re gonna have to perform it during the show. Put it in my eyeballs and earholes!

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