Before the U.S. Open draw on Thursday, Brad Gilbert, a coach and commentator, asked the same question as everyone else in tennis. The “big, $64,000 question,” he called it — five words that would produce an answer crucial to this tournament:

Where will Andy Murray land?

In men’s tennis, the events of recent months only heightened the intrigue over the draw, a smaller-scale, less-celebrated version of college basketball’s Selection Sunday. The names were the same, but the order and availability of the top men’s singles players had changed drastically since May.

Gone was Rafael Nadal, who withdrew from the tournament with nagging knee injuries. Up was Roger Federer, again No. 1 and the reigning Wimbledon champion. Down was Novak Djokovic, last year’s U.S. Open winner, seeded second but looking far more vulnerable than he was in 2011.

Then there was Murray, the Olympic gold medalist, and the question of which half of the draw he would end up in.

“Whichever half he goes on,” Gilbert said, “maybe the other path is the easier path this year to go to the finals.”

That was the consensus. The draw started shortly after noon. The intrigue lasted all of five minutes. An official came up with Murray’s chip and slotted him into the top half of the draw, where, should players advance according to seeding, he will meet Federer in the semifinals.

If the way the draw unfolded appeared to favor Djokovic, there was also a certain symmetry to another potential Murray-Federer showdown. The two met twice this summer on the grounds at Wimbledon, first in the Wimbledon final (won by Federer) and then in the Olympic gold-medal match (won by Murray).

There is much tennis to be played before the U.S. Open concludes, of course, including Murray’s first-round match against Alex Bogomolov Jr., an opponent known to make Murray uncomfortable. Murray could meet Feliciano Lopez, whom Murray’s mother once nicknamed Deliciano, in the third round. He could play Milos Raonic, the serve-crushing Canadian, in Round 4.

Should Murray continue on his roll, should he win the Open, it would be the first year since 2003 that four different men’s singles players won Grand Slam events. He would join Djokovic (the Australian Open champion), Nadal (French Open) and Federer (Wimbledon) as the major tournament winners in 2012.

To do so, Murray would most likely again have to contend with Federer, who is having a resurgent summer.

“Roger surprised us all,” Chris Evert said on a recent ESPN conference call. “He’s gotten his second wind in his career.”

Evert then listed all the circumstances for Federer’s climb back atop the rankings, including Nadal’s injuries and Djokovic’s streaky play. That Federer fell to No. 3, she said, and that critics predicted the end of his career also took pressure off him.

In the first round, Federer will play Donald Young, a struggling American who has won only three matches this year. Also in his quarter of the bracket: Tomas Berdych (seeded sixth), Gilles Simon (16th), Mardy Fish (23rd) and Sam Querrey (27th).

On the women’s side, top-seeded Victoria Azarenka managed to avoid the Williams sisters in her half. Azarenka could play Samantha Stosur, the defending champion, in the quarterfinals and Maria Sharapova in the semifinals.

Venus Williams, who is ranked 47th and unseeded, could face No. 6 Angelique Kerber in the second round. Among the other intriguing potential matches, Li Na and Kim Clijsters could meet in the third round, in a rematch of their 2011 Australian Open final. Clijsters, a three-time U.S. Open champion, has said she will retire after the tournament.

One factor sure to complicate the tournament — not counting weather, which could cause another delayed men’s singles final — is the impact of the Olympics on the health and fitness of top players. Normally, they would rest after Wimbledon before moving into the hardcourt season. This year, they did not.

“The hardest transition is going from grass to hardcourt because it’s a surface that’s the toughest on your body,” Gilbert said. “So it’s like these guys had no time to rest.”