Last week’s record: 2-1

Seahawks -1

In order to win at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, you need to have a disciplined football team. The Los Angeles Chargers are not that. They are averaging 6.4 penalties per game (14th in the NFL), and 7.7 penalties per game over their past three games. Both teams are in the upper-third of the league in turnover margin; Seattle is first at +1.4 and Los Angeles is seventh at +0.7. The Chargers lead the NFL at 6.9 yards per play, whereas the Seahawks average just 5.6 yards per play. But, can you trust the Chargers in a big spot? It feels like a game where L.A. can either get over the hump, or let the game slip away because of a litany of mental mistakes. Spoiler alert, the Chargers always choose the latter.

Bonus pick: Bills +10

Nobody wants any part of the Bills, so the contrarian in me loves them. Sometimes the best plays are the most difficult plays. Nathan Peterman has been announced as the starting quarterback for Buffalo, so you know people are lining up at the ticket window to get down on the Bears. Therefore, you should see the Bills getting somewhere between 101⁄2 and 12 points by the time the game kicks off. Over the past 30 years, the Bears have been favored by double digits on the road once — at Arizona in 2006. Chicago won 24-23. Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky struggles when he has to make quick decisions. And with Chicago placing offensive lineman Kyle Long on injured reserve, the second-year quarterback might be feeling more heat than usual. If his first read is covered, his instinct is to tuck the ball and run. It has bailed him out against some defenses, but the Bills are strong at linebacker and in their secondary. If the Buffalo secondary can stay with Chicago’s receivers, I can’t see Trubisky outrunning the linebackers on a regular basis. I am picturing the Bears getting a 13-6 lead and being perfectly content with handing the ball off and getting out of Buffalo with a win.