WASHINGTON — Wednesday is the 30th anniversary of the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. Gun-control advocates, including Reagan’s wounded press secretary, Jim Brady, will use the day to launch a renewed push for curbs on guns.

Once again, chances are they won’t get very far.

The public remains sharply divided, largely along geographic lines, over gun rights vs. gun control. Gun-rights groups, led by the National Rifle Association, dramatically outspend gun-control organizations on campaign donations and lobbying. President Barack Obama, though he urged gun-control action in an essay March 13 in the Arizona Daily Star newspaper, hasn’t made a strong push. Congress is likely to remain preoccupied with budget battles, with lawmakers unlikely to tackle the divisive issue of guns.

“People are sensitive to the issue of gun violence because of the Giffords shooting … but the gun issue is down on Congress’ list of priorities, given high unemployment and two and a half wars,” said Darrell West, the director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, a center-left Washington policy-research center.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., is recovering at a Houston rehabilitation center after being shot in the head Jan. 8 outside a Tucson supermarket.

“She’s the most prominent victim since Reagan,” noted Paul Helmke, the president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence.

The Tucson incident, combined with the Reagan anniversary, gives gun-control advocates a fresh platform.

Brady and his wife, Sarah, a leading gun-control advocate, plan to visit the White House on Tuesday and Capitol Hill on Wednesday to lobby for tighter curbs on firearms.

“I think prospects are better than you’re probably hearing,” Sarah Brady said Monday in an interview. However, she conceded, “there’s an awful lot on everybody’s schedule, and their thoughts right now are often elsewhere.”

‘Not much has been done’

That’s nothing new. Other than the 1993 “Brady Bill,” which requires background checks for handgun or long-gun purchasers from federally licensed gun dealers, “not much has been done in the last 30 years,” Helmke said.

A 1994 crime bill passed with Democratic majorities that included a ban on assault weapons, but Democrats then lost their congressional majorities that fall. The ban’s unpopularity, especially in the South and West, was cited as one primary reason for the losses. The ban expired in 2004. The Obama administration hasn’t launched a serious effort to renew it.

After the 1999 shootings of Columbine High School students in Colorado, Democrats pushed hard to close the “gun show loophole,” which permitted sales at gun shows without background checks. Vice President Al Gore’s vote broke a Senate tie, allowing the measure to pass. But the effort died later in the congressional session, and Gore, in a tight 2000 presidential race as the Democrats’ nominee, was largely mum on the effort.

No gun-violence horror ever has tilted the political world decisively toward strong gun control. In 1965, about two years after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated, a Gallup Poll found that 44 percent of the nation wouldn’t support a handgun ban. The month after the Reagan shooting, that figure climbed to 58 percent. Last year it hit 69 percent.

Cultural factors influence public attitudes.

A Pew Research Center poll taken Aug. 25-Sept. 6 found that in the East, 60 percent favored gun control while 36 percent supported gun rights. In the Midwest, 52 percent backed gun rights, and 44 percent preferred gun control. The South was split, though the tally was 61 percent to 36 percent for gun rights in Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee. The poll surveyed 3,509 people; its margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Urban Democrats are the most vocal gun-control advocates, but the national party has shied away from any major push.

“Democrats are fearful of the gun issue,” West said.

Sarah Brady said that when she and her husband visit Washington, “we want to shore up the Democrats first. When you go and visit with members of Congress, a lot of them know it’s the right thing to do, but they don’t want to face voting for it.”

Not only is there pressure from constituents, there’s also the opposition of well-financed gun-rights groups that work to defeat lawmakers who favor gun control.

“The NRA and other gun-rights organizations are incredibly entrenched and have a powerful structure able to raise a great deal of money for lobbying and electoral politics. There’s no indication, even with the Giffords shooting, that’s going to change,” said David Levinthal, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics, an independent group that tracks campaign spending.

The center found “gun-rights groups favor Republicans with their cash, and give a whole lot more of it than gun-control supporters.”

NRA officials didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Gun-control backers say 2011 could be different, but their opponents expect little change.