Real Estate Takes the Lead in Investment Options

Published 12:00 am Saturday, January 9, 2016

Signs that the 2015 holiday season has come to a close are visible everywhere in Central Oregon this week: lights are coming down, trees are left on curbs for industrious Boy Scouts to collect, and instead of tinsel, store shelves are stacked with storage totes for organizing in the new year.

By all measurable accounts, it was a great season. The latest Gallup poll shows that Americans spent an average of $830 on holiday gifts for one another, compared with $720 in 2014 – though the 20-year record still belongs to Christmas 2006, in which consumers gleefully gave $866 worth of merchandise to the special people in their lives. Economists say the increased spending is appropriately reflective of a steady improvement in consumer confidence and its cousin consumer sentiment, which are holding up remarkably well for an election year following a recession.

Those same economists believe that this indicates great things for the continually recovering housing market. The year closed with a nearly 10 percent national increase in demand for existing single-family homes and the highest demand for new construction homes in eight years, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But while these statistics are expected, some of the psychology behind them is not. Real estate has quietly become a primary investment preference for everyone from baby boomers to millennials today – even more appealing than putting funds in a saving account, the stock market or buried in the backyard.

A recent survey that accompanied Bankrate’s popular Annual Financial Security Index Study supported this train of thought. When specifically asked what kind of investments made the most sense, 27 percent of survey respondents said they would invest in property as their primary choice to ensure a solid return. Other top answers from Bankrate’s recent studies — including CDs, traditional savings and similar cash investments — came in second at 23 percent. Wall Street generated limited interest, with only 17 percent reporting that they would buy stocks. Gold and precious metals followed at 14 percent and bonds came in last at 5 percent.

“We’re not seeing the bunker mentality from individual investors to the same extent of the past few years,” stated Greg McBride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst, in a report on Bankrate’s web page detailing the survey results. “But the preference for real estate over, say, the stock market, does beg the question of whether or not Americans are again viewing residential housing as a golden ticket.”

This question holds special relevance in Central Oregon, which hasn’t disappointed since Business Insider Magazine projected the area would become the second-fastest growing housing market in the United States between 2011-2016.

Currently, the average price per square foot in the Bend area hovers around $200 and the median price of sold homes is about $340,000. Local experts agree that this market has a long and positive growth curve ahead, but are careful to warn against activity that could contribute to a boom-bust phenomenon.

“Even in this market, I still don’t recommend buying a home for the ‘expectation’ that the value will go up,” said Matt Bassitt, owner of Northwestern Home Loans in Bend. “Find a home that is affordable for your family at a price that is comparable to what you would pay for rent of a similar property. In many recent cases, we have seen people get a mortgage for less than their previous rent payments.

“The market is different today than in 2006, namely due to the fact that borrowers have to be fully qualified now, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t risk in real estate,” Bassitt continued.

Given this, Bassitt advises local buyers and investors alike to “be smart, and invest wisely by purchasing investments that have a positive cash flow” when faced with the allure of a thriving market.

With a four-year university on its way, and the Urban Growth Boundary approval still undetermined, the question is not whether prices will rise, but how quickly. Staying focused on long-range value is key, according to Brian Ladd, principal broker for the Ladd Group at Cascade Sotheby’s International Realty in Bend.

“Investing in a home is a large decision in any phase of life. If done properly, it can provide housing, security, an emotional foundation for life and family, and a good return,” Ladd said. “However, one should never purchase a home on short-term expectations of price appreciation.

“Those of us who have experienced cycles in the market understand that there are liquidity issues with real estate in down markets,” Ladd continued. “The key to real estate is to make sure that you are not over-leveraged, and that you would be able to weather the down cycles and your monthly payment. If you can always stay current on your payments, real estate is a great long-term asset and investment.”

On the heels of a robust holiday season, as Americans continue to shift their investment preferences to focus on tangible assets, it calls to mind a quote by Franklin D. Roosevelt, whose words are fitting for this phase of our economic cycle:

“Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in the world.”

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