Analytics will be in the spotlight during the upcoming NFL season more than ever because of a rule change involving the extra point.

After a few years of trying to change the rule, NFL owners voted in May to move the extra-point try from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line. However, if teams want to go for two points, the ball will remain at the 2. The rule change also says the defense can return a blocked extra point or failed two-point try for two points. Under the previous rule, the ball was dead on a failed try.

The NFL experimented with the longer kick for two weeks in last year’s preseason. Kickers made 94.3 percent of their 33-yard extra points. The question this year: Kick the extra point or go for two?

Brian Burke, creator of Advanced Football Analytics, has worked with numerous teams over the years on the odds of certain in-game scenarios, such as two-point and fourth-down conversions.

Burke is 50-50 on the change.

“I know its intent,” he said. “It’s important to keep the game interesting, but they may have made it more complicated than it needed to be. The ball is in two different spots now for the extra-point. Overall it’s a better solution. Kicking in general can improve, maybe make narrower posts.”

Burke has studied analytics for nearly 10 years. Each year, teams contact Burke and his company for advice.

“It was a hobby of mine and interesting to me,” Burke said. “I started the website and got phone calls from media and different outlets, and that’s when teams started to call me to consult with them.”

Extra points from the 2-yard line had a conversion rate of 99.5 percent, while the all-time success rate of the two-point conversion is 48 percent. The 32 teams attempted 59 two-point tries last season, converting on 47 percent. Eight teams did not attempt a single two-point conversion.

“More teams will go for two,” Burke said. “It’s twice the risk, but twice the reward. Kicking it is just half the risk, but half the reward.”

Keith Goldner broke the percentages down further. Goldner is chief analyst at numberFire, an analytical company.

According to Goldner, with the ball moved to the 15-yard line, the success rate drops six percentage points to 93.6 percent. The expected point total that comes from a two-point try is .960, which is higher than expected from an extra-point try from the 15-yard line.

Going for two, under these new rules, is probably smarter, according to Goldner. A lot goes into the decision, and of course, the rate of hitting a two-point conversion can increase with a little more practice.

“This obviously depends on your personnel and your opponent’s personnel, but running the ball by the goal line has a higher success rate than throwing the ball,” Goldner said. “I am personally a proponent of spreading the field and running the ball into open gaps, depending on how the defense lines up.”

Another reason two-point attempts might increase is because dual-threat quarterbacks are becoming the norm in the league.

“It will make teams more likely to miss extra points, and as a result, more likely to go for two in general,” Goldner said. “In reality though, as many coaches are highly risk averse, it probably will not have a dramatic immediate effect on coaching tendencies.”

Either way, the percentages will be looked at closely.

That is where analytics come in.

“Some teams use my tools and models for themselves, and I provide help for teams to make the right decision,” he said. “I’ve worked closely with teams over the years. My tools and models have now been the standard around the league.”

One scenario Burke can recall is when the overtime rules changed. Before, the game would end with any team scoring first. Now if one team kicks a field goal, the other team has a chance to play offense.

Burke said that teams shouldn’t rely on long field-goal tries in overtime.

“When the rule changed, teams weren’t sure how to handle some fourth-down decisions,” he said.

“Long field goals are bad on first possessions. You don’t want that. Punting in long field-goal range might be better.”