Nasdaq nearing highs of 2000

Published 12:00 am Saturday, January 3, 2015

SAN JOSE, Calif. — The Nasdaq has been steadily climbing its way back to the heights of the dot-com boom — leading to the inevitable question of whether it’s headed for another dot-com bust.

While stock market analysts have a range of views, most argue that the current surge in the tech-dominated index, which on Friday hovered around 4,725 and peaked in March 2000 at 5,048.6, is more sustainable than the frothy period that marked the late 1990s and later collapsed with the Nasdaq hitting a post-bubble low of 1,108.4 in October 2002.

“Yes, the Nasdaq is real this time,” said Chris Giordano, president of Los Gatos-based Giordano Wealth Management, an investment planning firm. “The fundamentals in the stock market and the Nasdaq today are much better than the fundamentals we had 15 years ago.”

During the dot-com bubble, investors flocked to plunk down bets on smaller tech companies with intriguing technologies but unproven — and sometimes non-existent — revenue streams.

“Companies were being formed by writing down business plans on the backs of napkins,” said Jeffrey Elfont, president of Walnut Creek-based Pinnacle Capital Management, an investment manager. “Now you have new technologies, biotech, connectivity, mobile, social networks. You have Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter.”

To be sure, it’s entirely possible that some tech companies are overvalued right now, but they have real, not speculative, income.

“Even if they are a bit inflated in price, revenue streams seem more tangible,” Elfont said. “Balance sheets are better. Companies have actual income or solid potential income.”

Robert Gavrich, president of Alameda-based Seasonal Strategy, an investment advisory firm, was decidedly more bearish.

“The stock market, including the Nasdaq, is an accident waiting to happen,” Gavrich said. “The Federal Reserve is being too accommodating, and it is making the same mistakes it made before the financial crisis.”

Problems for the stock market could arrive from macroeconomics: The world economy is full of uncertainty.

“Greece is on the verge of collapse again, and that could affect Italy, Spain, and France,” Elfont said. “China is slowing down significantly. Russia expects to go into recession with their economy shrinking by 2 percent and inflation rising by 12 percent.”

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