Central Oregon’s uneven growth

Published 5:00 am Thursday, May 23, 2013

Bend seems to be back in growth mode. The city’s population grew by an estimated 2,470 residents between 2010 and 2012, according to estimates released today, putting its population at 79,109.

After ballooning by more than 20,000 residents from 2000 to 2007 — but adding just 1,183 between 2008 and 2010 — Bend’s 3.2 percent growth rate from 2010 to 2012 trailed only Hillsboro, Portland and Beaverton among Oregon’s largest cities, and just barely.

Redmond added more than 700 people over that time, growing to 26,924 residents as of July 1, according to city population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

But for Central Oregon, population growth starts and ends in Deschutes County, the estimates show.

Madras grew by 65 residents between 2010 and 2012, according to the estimates. Prineville lost 80.

The census figures show more than half of Central Oregon’s population growth taking place in Bend, which saw massive growth between the 1990s and the 2008 housing market crash, then flattened.

But the housing market may have turned a corner last year.

Construction in subdivisions across Bend, quiet for four years, started springing to life. And a modest uptick in the job market could lead to a new influx of residents, said Bend Mayor Jim Clinton.

“Judging from building-permit activity, growth seems to be coming back,” Clinton said.

The city issued more permits for single family homes last year than in 2010 and 2011 combined.

The uptick comes as the number of out-of-state residents moving to Oregon seems to be on the rise. More than 14,000 people moved into Oregon in 2012, up from 7,000 in 2010 and 7,500 in 2011, according to figures from the Portland State University Population Research Center.Deschutes County had the fifth-highest influx of people into Oregon over that time, following the three Portland-area counties and Lane County.

“It’s a mixed blessing,” Clinton said. “A certain amount of growth is good for the community. But too much growth puts the population way ahead of infrastructure.”

More homebuilding and population growth in Bend also increases the urgency for city leaders to expand the urban growth boundary, the area where a city can build residential, industrial and commercial properties. The state must approve the expansion, which city leaders hope to wrap up in 2017.

But if growth continues on its upward trend, Clinton said, “There’s going to be pressure to go more quickly than 2017.”

Crook County and Prineville leaders, meanwhile, are grappling with the opposite problem: They’re searching for ways to bring more residents back to the area.

The county has struggled with an unemployment rate 4 to 6 percentage points higher than the state average since the start of the recession, and an overall population loss since 2010, with residents leaving to find work elsewhere.

“We have lost some major industry, some large employers,” said Crook County Commissioner Ken Fahlgren.

Les Schwab Tire Centers moved its headquarters from Prineville to Bend in 2008. The state closed the Mt. Bachelor Academy near Prineville a year later, and a number of mill and secondary wood-product manufacturing closures have combined to slash hundreds of jobs from the area.

“We lost a lot of young families with those losses,” Fahlgren said. “It’s going to be a stretch to get them back, though I think recently we’ve started moving in the right direction.” The 2012 projections for Crook County and Prineville are up slightly from 2011 projections.

The Census Bureau counts the population every 10 years in every city, county and state in the country. But each year between the official counts, the bureau releases estimates based on demographic data like birth rates, death rates and migration trends.

A community’s population determines how much federal money it gets for housing, child nutrition, medical assistance and other programs.

The federal government delivered more than $630 billion in aid to state and local governments in the 2010 fiscal year, according to a 2011 U.S. Census Bureau report. Oregon received about $7.8 billion of that, based on its population count.

An increasing population is “a two-sided equation,” Deschutes County Commissioner Alan Unger said. More people coming to the county increases the tax base.

“But we also recognize that it’s going to require more services,” Unger said. “In the big picture, we have to figure just how much we’re growing and then plug those things into our budgets, knowing we’ll need to provide more services.”

Comparing Oregon cities and area counties

Comparing Oregon cities

The census data ranked cities nationwide based on their 2010-12 population growth. For example, during that time Bend was the fourth-fastest-growing city in Oregon with a population of 50,000 or more, and the 191st in the nation.

Comparing area counties

Deschutes County’s population grew by 2.9 percent between 2010 and 2012, adding 4,544 residents over that time. But Jefferson County added just 29 residents over that two-year span, while Crook County actually lost 249 residents.

In 2012 data, hints of a trend?

Bend added nearly 2,500 residents between 2010 and 2012, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Census Bureau. It was one of Oregon’s fastest-growing cities.

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