Triple Crown tide lifts a lot of boats

Published 12:00 am Thursday, June 7, 2018

No matter how Justify, the undefeated Triple Crown threat, fares in the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park, past performances indicate that the big winners will be everyone else.

The New York Racing Association will benefit from significant increases in attendance and, more important, betting. NBC Sports Group, which holds the broadcast rights, is anticipating a boost of Olympic proportions. And, at least for one day, a sport that typically struggles for attention will draw even the most casual of fans.

“We’ve only had 12 Triple Crown winners,” said Christopher Kay, chief executive and president of NYRA. “It’s not like any other sport where there is always an ordained champion at the end of the season or into the postseason.”

Although horses in North America are honored at the end of the year with Eclipse Awards according to gender, age and racing surface, the 11⁄4-mile Kentucky Derby, the 13⁄16-mile Preakness Stakes and the 11⁄2-mile Belmont are limited to 3-year-old thoroughbreds. The chosen few that complete the Triple Crown sweep are elevated to legendary status. Those that fail are largely forgotten over time.

Sir Barton was the first to be crowned, in 1919. American Pharoah (yes, his name was misspelled) was the most recent, in 2015. His tour de force ended a record 37-year drought between champions. He immediately followed an unsuccessful try by California Chrome, an especially popular California-bred horse with distinctive white markings known as chrome, in emerging as the 12th Triple Crown winner.

Betting amounts and television ratings surrounding the impact of California Chrome’s bid — he ran fourth — and American Pharoah’s success illustrate the gold rush that follows when history is at stake.

NYRA reported all-sources wagering totals of $83 million on the 2014 Belmont Stakes and $75 million on the 2015 Belmont. With no Triple Crown prospect, the total fell to $52.2 million in 2016 and dropped again to $47.2 million last June.

For serious horseplayers, a Triple Crown shot is extremely inviting. They can make large wagers without significantly affecting the odds because betting pools are huge. And they know horses that have developed high profiles will, if history holds, be defeated. Justify is the 36th horse to take the first two legs.

“Casual fans have a hard time creating a scenario where that horse can get beat,” said Jonathon Kinchen, winner of the 2015 National Handicapping Championship, referring to all Triple Crown hopefuls.

The difference in television viewership is profound. Jon Miller, NBC’s president of programming, said audiences for the last three non-Triple Crown Belmont Stakes averaged 5.9 million viewers compared with a combined average of 19.6 million viewers in 2014 and 2015.

“To give you an idea of the scope of that, that would be the highest rating of the entire second quarter,” Miller said. If there should be the same strong numbers for Justify, Miller said that would represent “the most watched Saturday on television since the Pyeongchang Olympics in February.”

According to NBC, the Belmont Stakes typically attracts a virtually even split between female and male viewers, enhancing its appeal to advertisers. “There are only a handful of sports where you can say that,” Miller said. “The Triple Crown falls into that category as do the Olympics and the Super Bowl.”

NYRA announced on May 31 that its reserved seating was sold out. It began capping attendance at 90,000 in 2015, a practice it is continuing. In 2014, some fans who were part of a crowd of 102,199, the third largest in Belmont history, complained of a poor experience. That included long lines, a lack of food and drinks late in the day, and transportation failures and lengthy delays leaving parking lots at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

Since Triple Crown races are restricted to 3-year-olds, the attempt carries with it a must-win urgency that cannot be compared to any other event in sports. There is no next race in which to try. There is no next year. And the drama unfolds in just under 21⁄2 minutes.

“The vibe, the electricity in the air, is so much greater when a Triple Crown is on the line,” said Jerry Bailey, a retired Hall of Fame jockey who works as an NBC analyst.

“Every move you make out there from the time you get on your horse is being witnessed by a really appreciative crowd,” he said. “They just want to be there for the moment.”

Stars such as Justify, racing for the third time in five weeks, often must face opponents that skip the Preakness. Their trainers hope rest can help overcome a talent gap at the Belmont’s arduous distance. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who oversees Justify, famously said after American Pharoah won the Preakness, “I know everybody right now is sharpening their knives, getting ready.”

Bailey sharpened his knife in thwarting a Triple Crown bid by Smarty Jones, a Pennsylvania-bred horse that developed an enormous following in 2004. Bailey, aboard the eventual fourth-place finisher Eddington, and Alex Solis, who rode the fifth-place finisher Rock Hard Ten, combined to exert tremendous early pressure on Smarty Jones and his jockey, Stewart Elliott.

“I rode to win. That was pretty much all that was on my mind,” Bailey said. “I rode against him in the Preakness and he kicked my ass. I sat back off him and he got a comfortable lead and I never got close to him.”

Bailey’s change in tactics helped make Smarty Jones vulnerable to a late charge by the long-shot Birdstone, ridden by Edgar Prado and owned by Marylou Whitney. Smarty Jones weakened at the end and finished second. A record crowd of 120,139 spectators suddenly fell silent.

Whitney, 92, recalled during a recent tearful phone interview that emotions ran so high she was pelted by beer cans on the way to the winner’s circle. Prado, who had hoped Smarty Jones would lift an industry that has sagged for decades, apologized immediately after the finish. “I had to do my job,” he said. “This is part of the business.”

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