Workers are waiting for a wage jump

Published 12:00 am Sunday, August 5, 2018

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The U.S. labor market added 157,000 jobs while the unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent and wage growth improved — although workers are waiting for gains in purchasing power as prices rise.

The July job creation report issued Friday by the Labor Department fell short of analyst expectations, but figures for May and June were revised upward by 59,000.

The economy is producing strong payroll gains, averaging 215,000 net new jobs a month, the best since 2015. The unemployment rate is near its lowest point since 2000.

In this record stretch of job growth that began in 2010, all eyes are on wages, which have been slower to recover from the recession. The July numbers looked good, with a caveat.

Average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $27.05. That was an improvement over a 4-cent gain in June.

Wages were up 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended July 31, the same annual pace as the previous month and an improvement over the 2 percent wage gains early in recovery.

President Trump and Republicans trumpet the wage growth as a sign their policies, particularly the large tax cuts, are working.

They fail to note prices have been rising along with wages. After adjusting for inflation, wage growth actually slowed from its pace in 2015-16. By one measure, it turned negative.

While wages are growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, the consumer price index for the 12 months ended June 30 was up 2.9 percent — meaning American purchasing power went down.

A broader measure of inflation used by the Federal Reserve, based on total personal consumption expenditures, showed an annual rate of 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended June 30. That means purchasing power improved, but not by much in the past year.

The Labor Department tracks inflation-adjusted wages. The most recent report, in June, showed a 0.1 percent earnings increase.

On an annual rate, inflation-adjusted wage growth was flat in June for the second month in a row. Annual wage growth ran about 2 percent in 2015 because inflation was lower.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell acknowledged last month inflation-adjusted wages have fallen.

Some analysts note employers are putting more money into benefits, which increases overall worker compensation but doesn’t show up in wage statistics.

The Labor Department’s employment cost index, which takes into account wages and benefits, is up only slightly more than wages alone.

For the 12 months ended June 30, the index had increased 2.8 percent.

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