Employment in Oregon’s computer industry is stronger than it was even at the peak of the dot-com bubble, and economists expect growth to continue into 2024.

The industry that writes software, designs the integration of software and hardware and operates data centers employed 14,900 people in Oregon in June, and employment was 28 percent higher than the tech-bubble peak of 11,600 in 2000, according to the Oregon Employment Department.

It’s almost hard to believe now that the industry shed more than 3,000 jobs, or nearly 30 percent of its workforce, from 2001 to 2003, and some of the job losses came from the closure of entire firms, as Employment Department economist Erik Knoder pointed out in a recent article on the computer systems design industry.

“After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2001, the real need for the industry quickly resumed and growth continued much as it had before the bubble,” Knoder wrote.

Economists are hardly predicting another bubble burst. The most recent forecast, created in 2014, calls for job growth of 40 percent over the decade ending in 2024, with an average 19,900 jobs in the state.

Code-writing schools are springing up in response to the demand for labor. Web developer Chris Tsongas hopes to open the first one in Bend next month. If he can recruit at least four people willing to pay $7,500 for a 12-week course in Javascript, Adventure Code School will launch Sept. 6, Tsongas said.

Tsongas, who has taught at Portland code schools, said he wanted to bring a code camp to Bend because local companies were using offshore labor, and he’s met local people who had to go to Portland to launch their tech careers.

While Tsongas has a degree in computer science, he doesn’t believe that’s necessary for most entry-level work. “It’s not easy, but it’s also not rocket science,” he said. “We’re just building websites.”

The forecast is bullish for the industry’s most common occupations, but there is one job that’s expected to see a net decline. Employment of computer programmers is expected to fall slightly from 695 jobs statewide in 2014 to 616 by 2024.

People who work in software technology use the term “developer” and “programmer” interchangeably, but federal government economists define computer programmers as entry-level workers who take direction from software developers. The anticipated decline in jobs for computer programmers stems from the use of offshore labor, Employment Department occupational economist Brenda Turner said.

Computer industry managers in Oregon also say they’re trying to automate more of the basic code-writing functions, Knoder said.

Bill Moseley, CEO of GL Solutions, a Bend company that makes software used by state regulatory agencies, said, “The software industry has always been kind of hamstrung by the availability of skilled labor.”

His firm tried using offshore labor but found it was less flexible, and he said, it has become more expensive. So now GL Solutions is selling software that has the same underlying code but can be configured for different customers by less-skilled employees.

“It reduces the need to have a high-end developer for every project,” he said.

That’s happening across the world of business software, Moseley said. Simplification means greater profitability for software firms. GL Solutions’ sales this year are 21 percent higher than in 2015, Moseley said, but labor costs are up by only 6 percent.

While economists predict fewer jobs for entry-level computer programmers, people who run code-writing schools, which are largely for-profit enterprises, do not see that trend.

Michael Kaiser-Nyman, president of Epicodus in Portland, said companies are more willing to hire junior programmers than they were when he started the school four years ago because they’re easier to find, less expensive, and they can learn while working under more-experienced programmers.

Turner, the occupational economist, agrees that there will be many opportunities for people with programming skills. “Programming can be used in a variety of situations, and coding can be used in a variety of situations,” she said. There are entry-level positions in other occupations, such as web development and user support, she said.

Wages in the industry are high, and they’ve grown quickly. The average was $103,448 in Oregon last year, Knoder said, and growth has averaged 5 percent a year since 2009.

Many people who aspire to write code for a living are drawn by the salary, but Epicodus tries to manage expectations, saying its graduates in the Portland area earn $35,000 to $55,000 a year.

“If you totally changed careers, or you’re 19 … it’s unrealistic to expect that you’re going to go in and make a killing off the bat,” Kaiser-Nyman said. Over time, he said, “you often see it go up in a very considerable way.”

— Reporter: kmclaughlin@bendbulletin.com, 541-617-7860